The National Confederation of Commerce, Goods and Services (CNC) reassessed the forecast of Brazilian tourism growth for this year from 4.3% to 5.1%, compared to 2021, after IBGE announced that the volume of tourist activity in Brazil grew 41.9% between January and July this year. In July 2022, this figure grew by 1.1% compared to June.
As CNC president José Roberto Tadros indicates, the growth of tourism in Brazil in July 2022 was the highest for this month since 2011, when it reached 1.6%. Another standout of the analysis is the transport services segment in general, which grew 2.3% in July and contributed to the acceleration in revenue volume (the air transport segment alone grew 6.8% during the month).
“It was only in August this year that the average readjustment of the price of services reached the 12-month accumulated inflation rate, which was 8.8%. Until July, the price adjustment below inflation was the backbone of the activity, as well as the greater movement of people,” Tadros explained. With the inflation adjustment, the Confederation’s president believes that the pace of tertiary activities will be less intense over the coming months.
The forecast is for 322.600 jobs to be created by 2022. The formal labor force in tourism activities grew by 9.7%, second only to the construction sector, which increased by 11.5%. In the first six months of the pandemic, in 2020, the sharp decline in activity caused tourism in Brazil to lose 469.800 formal jobs - a decrease equivalent to 12% of the workforce in these activities.
With the gradual recovery, the sector, between October 2020 and July 2022, recovered more than 380.000 vacancies, especially for bars and restaurants (281.500 vacancies) and accommodation services (68.900). Since May last year, the monthly balances between admissions and dismissals are positive.
“At this pace, the CNC believes that Brazilian tourism will recover the 89.600 vacancies remaining and equal the level of pre-pandemic occupation, already starting from the beginning of the hiring period in the upcoming high season,” says Fabio Bentes.
The expectation of revenue growth is not higher because of the price readjustment of airline tickets, which are in an accrued high of 75% in the last 12 months through August this year. Currently, they are among the four items with the highest IPCA variation.
“In air transport, although the revenue volume has finally equaled the levels of February 2020, with 1% growth in July, the flow of passengers in Brazil’s largest airports, responsible for 70% of air transport, remains at 9% by the end of August, short of the pre-pandemic figures,” says CNC economist Fabio Bentes, responsible for the analysis. Even so, Bentes believes that Brazil’s tourism reaction has been consistent, despite the increase in prices and the higher cost of credit.