Accor has released a new study showing the tourist market will see 32% more overnight stays in Europe, with 1.6 billion more nights every year. Over 1.3 trillion EUR will be spent by international tourists. However, the hotel group has opened almost a hotel a day in 2025 mathematically, and therefore has an interest in the rosy outlook for European tourism. Hotel Inside investigates the stats and states who will really benefit.
While 10 years is a long time in tourism, the report ‘The Changing Face of Europe’s Tourism Map to 2036’ can sometimes feel like a foregone conclusion. Between 2026 and 2036, Accor is predicting a 32% increase in overnight stays in all accommodation types across Europe. Hotel stays are predicted to increase by 33%. International overnight stays could increase by 42%, while domestic overnight stays could increase by 24%. This means over 1.6 billion extra overnight stays each year for European tourism. However, this is a prediction and not a booking, nor is it guaranteed to increase profit in hotels.
The report uses modelling carried out by Tourism Economics, part of the Oxford Economics Group, commissioned by Accor. The study looks at 47 countries in Europe and uses a model to predict the origin markets, reason for travel, overnight stays and spending. However, it is based on assumptions around income, accessibility, geopolitical stability, flight capacity and behavior. Therefore, over a 10-year period the results can be volatile.
European Tourism Boom Is Real but Uneven
It is logical to assume there will be increased demand for travel in the long term. With increasing middle classes in Asia, better travel links and a general want for experiences, the outlook for Europe is positive. Accor estimate there will be over 810 million international arrivals in 2025. Approximately three quarters of European cross border travel is still generated within Europe.
However, this does not mean there will be a straight line upwards. UN Tourism showed only 0.4% growth in international arrivals globally in the first half of 2026. In June there was a global decrease. Eurostat showed a 1.7% increase in overnight stays across the EU in the same period. However, 9 member states had a decrease. These figures do not negate the 10-year forecast, but do show how a boom can be a volatile concept.
The figures are also quite high for individual countries. Azerbaijan will see a 116% increase in international overnight stays, Latvia will see 83% and Romania will see 82%. These are easier to achieve from a low base. When looking at percentages, you don’t know how much of a base they are starting from so the increase in demand can be exaggerated.
Accor Is Not Merely an Observer
The key conflict of interest here is that Accor is not just selling hotel rooms, but brands, franchise agreements, distribution, loyalty schemes and platforms. Increased travel will help them economically. In the report itself, after stating the increase in overnight stays, they are almost immediately stating that they will need well-known brands, global sales and professional operators due to the increase in international tourists. They use their ibis brand as an example.
In 2025 Accor opened 303 hotels, adding around 51,000 rooms. This is an average of one hotel every 1.2 days. By the end of September 2026 they have 5,857 hotels, with 885,219 rooms. They have 1,628 hotels (over 273,000 rooms) in the pipeline. They added 63 hotels in the third quarter alone. They are intentionally increasing their hotels. Having a positive outlook will help them attract new owners, franchise partners and investment.
While this does not mean they have made up the figures or influenced the independent modelers, it does mean the study is a double-edged sword. It is an industry analysis, but also a strategic tool for the company. Therefore, the readers should be a bit skeptical with the positive outlook, brand arguments and case studies. If you look at a growth study from an expanding hotel group, ask yourself what decision they are trying to make look plausible with the figures.
More Travelers Do Not Automatically Mean Higher Returns
The key issue here is understanding there may not be increased profit for individual hotels. While Europe will see a third more nights in 2036, individual hotels could see margin pressure. More new capacity means more beds for guests, increased energy, labor, finance and refurbishment costs. International spending is predicted to increase from 825 billion EUR in 2026 to over 1.3 trillion EUR. However, this is not a real increase in volume, nor will it mean increased operating profit for hotels. There is no reliable calculation of return for individual properties based on total sales in the visitor economy.
This is a key issue for European tourism. While there are many attractive cities, holiday areas and alpine areas, there is a limit to how much they can expand. There are labor shortages, little land for building and limited political acceptance. Guests are also wanting higher quality and sustainable operations. Midscale hotels with no clear brand can struggle in a growing market.
Blind Spots in the Optimistic Outlook
While the report does mention modernization, sustainability and niche markets, it does not talk in as much detail about the negative factors. Climate change, heatwaves, lack of water, increased flight costs and potential emissions taxes. There will be limits to overtourism, geopolitical issues, labor shortages and increased political discussion about the impact on local populations. Business travel is also not guaranteed. Accor predict a 50% increase in international business arrivals by 2036, compared to 39% for leisure. There is a lot of uncertainty around digital meetings, tighter budgets and changing travel policies.
Overall, while the study is not completely useless, it is not giving a clear central scenario with pessimistic and optimistic scenarios showing clear risk. This would be particularly useful when considering investment. Hotels are location specific and for certain guests.
The Future Does Not Belong to the Loudest Optimist
Accor is likely correct in the overall direction. Many people value travel and Europe has a good chance of seeing increased demand in the long term. However, it is questionable whether there will be a 32% increase in overnight stays by 2036. The current data suggests there will be resilience, but not a boom. The figures become more critical when they are directly linked to Accor’s expansion and franchise message.
For independent hoteliers, you should not just build as many extra rooms as possible. You should understand your local market, be conservative with your calculations and invest in your unique brand, quality and productivity. The key issue is not how many billion nights Europe will have in 10 years, but why a guest would choose your hotel and pay a price that makes economic sense.
