Global air traffic demand dropped by 2.2% year-on-year in May 2026, due to the regional conflict in the Middle East, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA). However, with the exception of the Middle East, airlines saw demand for air travel rise, even as capacity declined slightly more sharply than demand, down 2.3%. Meanwhile, the global air transport system posted a record load factor of 83.5% for May.
Middle East Impact Softens
“The Middle East conflict appears to be causing a drag on traffic growth, but it is proving to be relatively isolated,” said IATA Director General Willie Walsh. “Airline demand was down 2.2% in May, due to the war in the Middle East. However, the demand reduction in the Middle East was less severe than in April (28.4% in May compared to 46.6% in April). And excluding the Middle East, global air passenger demand was up 0.7% in May.”
Regional Performance on International Routes
On international routes, global air passenger demand fell 1.6%. Performance varied significantly by region:
- Europe posted solid growth of 3.8%, achieving a strong load factor of 85.4%.
- Latin America led with a robust 10.5% increase.
- Africa grew by 8.9%.
- Asia-Pacific saw more modest expansion of 1.3%, partly constrained by capacity reductions in Vietnam due to fuel supply issues.
- Middle East carriers suffered the steepest decline, with international traffic dropping 28.8%.
Domestic Markets Mixed
Traffic growth for domestic air travel was negative overall, down 3.1% compared to the same period last year. The contraction was led by China and the US, down 6.2% and 1.9% respectively. However, growth in other emerging markets such as India (10.1%) and Japan (2.8%) and Brazil (2.8%) contributed to a positive regional performance.
A Resilient Market
“Overall, the air transport market is showing remarkable resilience, despite the combination of geopolitical headwinds and high fuel prices. As an industry we are operating with thin profit margins (average of 2%) and will need to see fares increase to offset the effects of higher oil prices until this passes through to reduced jet fuel prices,” said Walsh.
Global air freight demand surged by 8.7% in May 2026 compared to the same period in 2025, driven by strong economic growth in Asian markets and a recovery in Europe’s industrial production after three consecutive monthly declines.
