Thailand's tourism sector is facing some real headwinds, mostly stemming from a pretty significant dip in international tourists, especially those coming from China. The Ministry of Tourism and Sports reported roughly 9.54 million foreign visitors in the first three months of 2025. While that is a slight increase of around 1.9% compared to 2024, it's nowhere near the 39.8 million they welcomed back in 2019.
In April, the numbers fell to about 2.52 million, which represents a 7.5% decrease from March, and a year-on-year drop of 8.7%. Because of this, the annual target has been revised downwards, from 38.1 million to approximately 37.2 million visitors, and revenue projections have been trimmed from around 2.3 trillion baht to closer to 2 trillion baht.
The Puzzle of China
China, which used to be a major source of Thailand’s tourism sector, bringing in 11 million visitors in 2019—and representing almost 30% of all arrivals in 2024—has experienced a fairly sharp decline recently. The number of arrivals has really taken a hit, falling from about 660,000 in January to just 272,000 in April. We are only seeing about 30% of what we had pre-Covid. A slowing economy paired with safety worries have a lot to do with this. When Chinese actor Wang Xing was kidnapped in Pattaya in January of 2025, bookings dropped by around 30% during Chinese New Year, even after Thailand tried to repair the damage by releasing an AI-generated video in Mandarin. The increasing popularity of places like Japan, South Korea and Vietnam, along with a shift away from group tours (down from 40% to 20%) is not helping the recovery either.
Health and Behavioral Shifts
A rise in Covid-19 infections, with about 14,716 new cases and nine deaths reported, brings this year's total to around 420,937 cases and approximately 112 deaths. This might keep some visitors away. Dr. Panumas Yanawetsakul, from the Department for Disease Control, noted an increase in respiratory infections during the rainy season. Furthermore, more strict visa application processes and a smaller number of flights available after Songkran have slowed things down.
Turning to Europe
To try and make up for these losses, Thailand is focusing on attracting more European tourists. European arrivals have risen to roughly 20% of the levels recorded in 2019, back in early 2025. Hotels and travel agencies in places like Phuket, Bangkok, and Chiang Mai are providing discounts, for example, 4-star hotels in Phuket have dropped their rates from about €80 to €50 per night. They also offer upgrades and all-inclusive packages. Cultural tours and wellness retreats, which tend to be popular with European travelers, are being promoted, while premium tourism is targeting more wealthy visitors with high-end, 5-star options and meetings, incentives, conferences, and exhibitions (MICE) packages in Bangkok.
Diversification and Sustainability Issues
Since we don't really know when Chinese tourism will come back, Thailand’s tourism sector is now also looking at places like India and medical tourism, tweaking the 2025 plans to feature customized packages. However, the dependency on five key provinces and infrastructure issues in other areas are presenting some difficulties. Environmental issues are obvious, with about 77% of Phuket's coral reefs damaged by pollution. This puts Thailand at number 47 in the 2024 World Economic Forum's tourism index. Actions like closing Maya Bay try to preserve its appeal, but long term investment in sustainability is really needed.
