Mabrian, a global travel intelligence firm, predicts modest growth for international tourism in the first half of 2026. Their analysis uses flight search data covering 86.7% of worldwide international travel demand. It focuses on the top 50 airports in each region.
The report shows large regional differences. Overall inspirational travel intent increased slightly compared to last year. A 5.9% rise in international air capacity supports this. Asia remains the primary driver of global travel enthusiasm.
Asia Emerges as the Clear Leader in Travel Intent
Asia builds on strong momentum from 2025. Eastern and Southeast Asia together capture 31.7% of global international travel demand. Eastern Asia includes Japan, South Korea, and China. It accounts for 16.3% of the share, and Japan leads the group. Demand for Japan is strong. Interest extends beyond hubs like Tokyo to secondary cities such as Fukuoka and Sapporo. This shows travelers want diverse experiences.
Southeast Asia holds 15.4% of global travel demand. Vietnam’s rise as a favorite destination drives this figure. The country is securing its appeal alongside Indonesia, the Philippines, and Cambodia. These places attract travelers who seek emerging destinations with good value.
West Asia, including the Arab Gulf countries, is also growing. It represents 8.9% of intentions and exceeds 2025 levels. The region benefits from a 3.6% increase in air capacity. Cities like Jeddah and Riyadh in Saudi Arabia rank among the top 10 global destinations for growth. Doha in Qatar also makes the list. They join Jakarta, Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City, Seoul, Moscow, Manila, and Tokyo.
This shift shows a wider mix in international travel demand. Travelers from new markets favor lesser-known destinations. These places offer quality, good prices, and unique experiences. They are slowly taking market share from traditional heavyweights.
Challenges in Traditional Travel Hotspots
Regions with famous sites face difficulties. Southern Europe, North America, South Asia, and Northern Europe show slight drops in travel intent.
The Caribbean is a specific area of concern. The demand dropped in the early months of 2026. Political tensions started in early January. These involved U.S. military actions and Venezuela which caused the decline. The impact is strongest among U.S. travelers. The Caribbean's share of U.S. outbound demand fell from 9.1% to 7.6%. Declines were sharp in January, and recovery was uneven. Affected areas include the Mexican Caribbean, the Dominican Republic, Jamaica, Aruba, and the Colombian Caribbean.
European markets showed a smaller dip in February. They partially rebounded in March. Market share stays below last year's levels. Experts state that the Caribbean must restore confidence to recover. Stability is key.
Resilience in West Asia Amid Regional Events
Recent protests in Iran did not hurt the travel intentions to West Asia. Demand for Arab Gulf destinations stayed stable through the first quarter. A small dip occurred in February, but numbers rebounded in March. Strong reputations protect tourism from isolated political events.
The findings show a changing global tourism market for 2026. Asia’s rise signals that travelers prioritize fresh, accessible, and culturally rich experiences. Traditional regions must adapt and manage external pressures to maintain the momentum.
