The global aviation sector finds itself navigating a rather bumpy ride in 2025, facing a trifecta of problems: delayed aircraft deliveries, ongoing trade disputes, and a generally unstable geopolitical situation.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA), representing over 300 airlines internationally, now projects industry net profits will dip to $36 billion (€31.5 billion), a slight drop from the initial $36.6 billion forecast. While passenger demand remains strong and leisure travel continues to thrive, supply chain issues and economic pressures are hindering the sector’s expansion. Consequently, IATA has urged both aircraft manufacturers and policymakers to take swift action.
Aircraft Delivery Delays: A Growing Crisis
A key challenge for airlines revolves around substantial delays in the delivery of new aircraft. This situation is impeding carriers' capacity to meet the current surge in travel demand. IATA Director General Willie Walsh put it bluntly: “The delays accumulated by the manufacturers are, frankly, unacceptable." He added, "We’re seeing about 26% fewer deliveries than what was expected just a year prior.” With orders exceeding 17,000 aircraft, airlines might face wait times that can stretch up to 14 years. Annual deliveries now average around 1,692 planes, a noticeable dip from over 2,000 before the pandemic. This discrepancy, largely due to Boeing and Airbus, has spurred speculation regarding possible legal action by IATA, though no formal announcement has been made public as of yet.
Such delays limit airlines' ability to grow their fleets and really take advantage of rising passenger numbers, expected to reach roughly 5 billion by the close of 2025. That's an increase of around 4% from 2024, by the way. Leisure travel, especially, remains a clear area of strength, with travel cementing its position as a key priority for consumers.
Trade Wars and Economic Pressures
The financial outlook of global aviation is additionally dimmed by a trade war begun by the U.S. presidency. This has played a role in pushing operating profits down to about $66 billion (€58 billion), a decline from the earlier $67.7 billion projection made earlier this year. These tariffs, in combination with geopolitical uncertainties, are pinching airlines' profit margins and complicating the operational landscape globally. Still, the industry maintains a pivotal role in the global economy, supporting 86.5 million jobs and contributing approximately 3.9% to global GDP.
Safety and Resilience in the Skies
Despite these difficulties, the global aviation sector does have a success story to share when it comes to safety. Back in 2024, out of over 40.6 million flights worldwide, there were sadly only seven fatal accidents, which caused around 244 fatalities. IATA's leadership is dedicated to achieving a "zero" accident rate, which underscores the persistent dedication to safety within the industry. This accomplishment emphasizes the resilience of commercial aviation, even when operational and economic problems are present.
