ACI World, an aviation industry association, has published its annual World Airport Traffic Forecasts (WATF) dataset. According to the report, global air passenger traffic will double over the next 20 years.
By 2052, China will overtake the US as the world's largest aviation market. The new WATF covers 30 years, from 2023 to 2052, and includes forecasts for airport traffic at global, regional, and country levels. The data is based on information gathered from 141 countries, including 29 new countries, and provides detailed forecasts for passenger numbers, air cargo volumes, and aircraft movements.
ACI World's director general, Luis Felipe de Oliveira, stated that the projections indicate global passenger traffic is expected to reach 9.7 billion by the end of 2024, surpassing pre-pandemic levels, and is projected to double by 2042 and increase 2.5 times by 2052.
The global air passenger market dynamic is expected to shift from advanced economies to emerging and developing ones in the long term. This shift will be due to significant urbanization, population increases, and rapid economic growth in these regions. As a result, people's disposable income and willingness to travel will increase, leading to a rise in air passenger traffic demand.
Main WATF Findings:
- By the end of 2024, global air passenger traffic will reach 9.7 billion, surpassing 2019 levels for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic.
- By 2024, international passenger traffic is expected to approach 4 billion, and domestic passenger traffic will reach 5.7 billion.
- Global air passenger traffic is estimated to grow at an annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.3 percent from 2023 to 2042 and 3.6 percent from 2042 to 2052.
- Global passenger traffic is projected to nearly double between 2024 and 2042 and to increase 2.5 times by 2052.
- By 2042, international air passenger traffic is estimated to reach 8.7 billion, and domestic air passenger traffic is estimated to reach 10.6 billion.
- Between 2023 and 2042, total air passenger traffic in developed markets is expected to grow at a CAGR of 3.2%, while emerging and developing markets are expected to grow at a more considerable CAGR of 5.4%.
